A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
